A guided view of price action, financial statements, ratios, and AI-style research notes.
Overview
Equity · Technology · NASDAQ NMS - GLOBAL MARKET
Current price
5.4%USD
Market cap
US
Revenue
14.9%2025
Net income
15.5%2025
Price graph
AI analysis
Business overview: Microsoft Corp (MSFT) operates in Technology with an estimated market cap of $3.34T.
Revenue trend: Revenue expanded by 14.9% year over year, moving from $245.1B to $281.7B.
Profitability trend: Net income expanded by 15.5%; latest net margin is 36.1% and operating margin is 45.6%.
Balance sheet strength: Assets are $665.3B against liabilities of $274.4B. Debt-to-equity is 0.12 and current ratio is 1.39.
Valuation: P/E is 32.8, P/S is 11.9, and P/B is 8.6 using available market cap and filing data.
Risks: Provider coverage, filing timing, accounting classifications, rates, margins, competition, and macro conditions can materially change this view.
Educational summary: This is a fundamentals-oriented breakdown for research only and is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation.
Earnings calendar
Earnings
EPS est.
4.33
EPS actual
N/A
Revenue est.
$89.4B
Timing
amc
earnings · Jul 28, 2026
Fiscal Q4 2026, EPS estimate 4.3275, timing amc.
insider · May 15, 2026
15 recent insider transactions found; net reported share change -16,865.
filing · Apr 29, 2026
10-Q for period 2026-03-31 is available from SEC EDGAR.
SEC filing viewer
10-Q · Filed Apr 29, 2026
Select a filing and generate a summary. The summary is educational only and should be checked against the original SEC document.
Provider: not generated. Not investment advice.
Insider transactions
Coleman Amy
May 15, 2026 · Code F
Coleman Amy
May 14, 2026 · Code S
Coleman Amy
Apr 15, 2026 · Code F
Coleman Amy
Mar 16, 2026 · Code F
Walmsley Emma N
Mar 12, 2026 · Code A
Rainey John D
Mar 12, 2026 · Code A
List Teri
Mar 12, 2026 · Code A
Hoffman Reid
Mar 12, 2026 · Code A
Institutional ownership
Largest reported institutional positions from the current provider feed.
Thesis tracker
Write the reason you care about MSFT, then test whether the latest financials, filings, catalysts, insider data, and price action support or weaken it.
Catalysts
3
Positive / caution
1 / 1
Filings tracked
8
Integrity score
No thesis score yet. Save a thesis and run the integrity check to generate the monitor.
Provider: not generated. Educational research only.
Educational thesis tracking only. This is not investment advice and does not recommend buying, selling, or holding any security.
Quant lab
Technical indicators, tail-risk statistics, and a validation-gated log-return model for MSFT. Educational only.
Quant score
Trend 74 / Risk 43
ML next close
0.3%2026-06-01
EWMA volatility
Downside vol 18.6%
Tail risk
CVaR 3.83% / Max DD -37.6%
Close, 20-day average, 50-day EMA, Bollinger range, and next-session model point.
Expected move
-0.3%
Confidence
34%
Edge
-5.0%
Val samples
297
Chronological ridge autoregression on standardized lag, momentum, volatility, drawdown-tail, and slope features.
Momentum oscillator
Line / signal
0% lower band, 100% upper band
Latest close vs prior close
Chronological validation log-return error
Lower of zero-return and mean-return baselines
Predicted sign vs actual sign
Moving averages, MACD, RSI
Volatility and drawdown control
Sequence forecast and fit quality
Annualized return
12.8%Compounded from mean daily log return
Downside volatility
18.6%Annualized negative-return deviation
95% VaR
2.69%Historical one-day loss threshold
95% CVaR
3.83%Average loss inside the 5% tail
Sortino
0.65Return per unit downside volatility
Calmar
0.34Return divided by max drawdown
Hurst
0.63Trend persistence estimate
Regime
High-volatility stress1254 daily return observations
Price is trading above its 20-day average, which supports short-term momentum.
RSI is elevated, which can point to stretched short-term conditions.
EWMA realized volatility is moderate, so the model signal is less likely to be overwhelmed by daily noise.
Tail risk check: historical 95% one-day VaR is 2.69% and CVaR is 3.83%.
The return model has not beaten its simple baseline on the chronological validation split, so the forecast is heavily shrunk.
The forecast is an educational log-return model with validation-gated shrinkage, not a price target or investment advice.
Custom model
A custom neural network trains locally on next-session log returns and stores the latest fitted run in this browser. Scaling is fit on the training window only, with a chronological validation split and baseline gates.
Window
10
Layers
12
Features
Lags
Epochs
360
Predicted close
N/A
Awaiting training
Confidence
N/A
Awaiting training
Direction accuracy
N/A
Chronological validation
Model vs baseline
N/A
Log-return RMSE vs zero return
Forecast shrink
N/A
Validation gated
Planned architecture shown before training.
Each new training run logs a next-session forecast for MSFT. Completed rows score the model once the target close appears in price history.
Scored / pending
0 / 0
Forecasts tracked
Direction hit rate
N/A
Predicted sign vs actual
Return RMSE
N/A
Needs scored rows
Edge vs zero
N/A
Needs scored rows
Price MAE
N/A
Average absolute miss
Range capture
N/A
Actual inside predicted range
| Target | Preset | Prediction | Actual | Return error | Hit | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train a model to begin tracking live prediction performance. | ||||||
Validation split compared against simple return baselines.
Model RMSE
N/A
Zero baseline
N/A
Mean baseline
N/A
Momentum baseline
N/A
Edge vs zero
N/A
Edge vs momentum
N/A
Best epoch
N/A
Early stop
N/A
| Validation window | Model RMSE | Zero baseline | Hit rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train a model to generate walk-forward diagnostics. | ||||
No fitted weights yet.
Financial dashboard
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Assets | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $198.3B | $72.7B | $65.1B | $364.6B | $52.1B |
| 2023 | $211.9B | $72.4B | $59.5B | $470.6B | $49.4B |
| 2024 | $245.1B | $88.1B | $74.1B | $533.9B | $50.2B |
| 2025 | $281.7B | $101.8B | $71.6B | $665.3B | $45.1B |
Ratio analysis
